Esther Salifu
The reported withdrawal of Niger Republic’s troops from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has raised serious concerns about a potential resurgence of terrorist activities in the Lake Chad Basin, according to regional security experts.
Dr. Joshua Bolarinwa, Associate Professor and Head of the Division of Security and Strategic Studies at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), described the development as troubling but not unexpected, citing the country’s ongoing political crisis following the July 26, 2023, military coup.
“The withdrawal of Niger from the MNJTF was not surprising,” Dr. Bolarinwa said in a recent analysis shared via social media. “The fallout from the coup, including ECOWAS sanctions and diplomatic isolation, likely influenced the decision to pull troops from joint border operations.”
The MNJTF, reactivated in 2015, has been a critical force in combating the Boko Haram insurgency and other extremist threats in the region. With approximately 10,000 troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, the task force has carried out coordinated operations that have reclaimed territories, freed hostages, and dismantled insurgent camps.
However, the potential vacuum left by Niger’s withdrawal could reverse years of progress. “The absence of Niger’s forces may create security gaps along its borders, which could be exploited by Boko Haram, ISWAP, and other militant groups,” Bolarinwa warned. “This could lead to increased attacks, arms trafficking, and the infiltration of foreign fighters, particularly into Nigeria’s northeastern territories such as Gaidam, Mallam Fatori, and Damasak.”
Despite public assurances by Niger’s junta leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, that the country remains a member of the MNJTF, ground reports suggest a significant reduction in border patrols, especially in areas adjacent to Nigeria. Security analysts fear that this may already be contributing to a rise in cross-border incursions.
Niger’s geographic location is critical to regional stability. It shares borders with seven countries, the longest of which, 1,608 kilometers is with Nigeria. Experts believe that without Niger’s full cooperation, the security architecture of the Sahel and the Lake Chad region could become increasingly fragile.
Dr. Bolarinwa called for urgent diplomatic efforts to resolve the impasse and reestablish Niger’s role in regional counter-terrorism initiatives. “The solution lies in strengthening regional cooperation, enhancing diplomatic dialogue, and re-engaging Niger constructively,” he said. “Without that, the collective security framework in West Africa stands at risk.”
He also recommended the deployment of technology-driven border surveillance systems, greater intelligence sharing among MNJTF members, and humanitarian investments in vulnerable communities to counteract extremist influence.
